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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VfL Bochum edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.86 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.36 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Bochum fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.96 / defence 1.35, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 49% | Draw 23% | Arminia Bielefeld 28%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 57%, Arminia Bielefeld 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 1.14 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights