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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Bochum and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.55 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 48% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 23%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 46%, 1. FC Nürnberg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights