SV Elversberg 6-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Elversberg (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Elversberg face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SV Elversberg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, SV Elversberg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SV Elversberg. A 0.60 PPG lead over SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for SV Elversberg, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with SV Elversberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 52% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.065 / defence 0.816 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.120 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.483. Data: 42 SV Elversberg games / 42 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 49% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.57. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 49% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG SV Elversberg 1.84 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.065 / def 0.816 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.120 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Elversberg 6 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 49% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (4 meetings): SV Elversberg 2W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (1.06) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.12x) against SV Elversberg's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.40
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.20
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.35 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 22W 10D 10L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Elversberg are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.43 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 games (1.81 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.86 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.05 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won 6-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 57%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 57% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 6-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6-0 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.12 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 49% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.