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Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 6-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6-0 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.12 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 49% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights