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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.10 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.90 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.18 / defence 1.30 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 43% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.36 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights