🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat SC Paderborn 07 5-1 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 58%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.74 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights