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Shock result as Preußen Münster defy the odds to beat SV Elversberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat SV Elversberg 0-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.08 xG and Preußen Münster 1.15 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Elversberg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.31 / defence 1.18 against Preußen Münster attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 57% | Draw 24% | Preußen Münster 19%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Preußen Münster win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 60%, Preußen Münster 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Preußen Münster winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights