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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg and Karlsruher SC finished level at 2-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.92 xG and Karlsruher SC 2.13 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.35 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 35% | Draw 22% | Karlsruher SC 43%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 66%, Karlsruher SC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.34 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights