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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg and Hannover 96 finished level at 2-2 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.79 xG and Hannover 96 1.16 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.38 / defence 0.73 against Hannover 96 attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 52% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 25%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, Hannover 96 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Hannover 96's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.80 PPG, Hannover 96 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights