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Prediction vindicated as SV Elversberg edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.77 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.83 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 0.76 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 60% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights