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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 30, as SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.16 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.36 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 51% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 64%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.43 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights