🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat SV Elversberg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat SV Elversberg 1-2 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.27 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.96 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 42% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 26%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 56%, FC Schalke 04 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.76 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights