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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of SV Elversberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Elversberg 2-5 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.35 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights