SV Elversberg 2-5 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as SV Elversberg welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's home record at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, SV Elversberg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SV Elversberg, 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 61% and 1. FC Magdeburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 67% | 1. FC Magdeburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.169 / defence 1.213 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.470. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 SV Elversberg games / 51 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1.89. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.05 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 70% | 1. FC Magdeburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG SV Elversberg 1.66 / 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.169 / def 1.213 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
2.40
1. FC Magdeburg xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg 2 - 5 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 25% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (3 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
25%
3.97
22%
4.61
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
4.05
2.40
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.96
Clean Sheet
9%
11.00
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
2%
43.72
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 2.40 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 20W 11D 20L from 51 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 17L across 51 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 10W 6D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 61%.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 20W 11D 20L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 16W 18D 17L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.46 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when SV Elversberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when SV Elversberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SV Elversberg and 58% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 27% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SV Elversberg's games and 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SV Elversberg's matches and 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Elversberg 2-5 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.40 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.35 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 25% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.