SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg meet at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 4W 3D 3L at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
VfL Wolfsburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, VfL Wolfsburg are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 0W, VfL Wolfsburg 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–3 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 60% and VfL Wolfsburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 54% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.872 / defence 1.007 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.215 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.533. VfL Wolfsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 3 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 29% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 49%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.04. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 29% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.872 / def 1.007 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.215 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.88
VfL Wolfsburg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 29% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.87x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.22x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
29%
3.48
22%
4.45
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.88
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
4%
22.74
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.88 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 13W 14D 10L from 37 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 20L across 37 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Wolfsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.30 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 68%.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 13W 14D 10L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 8W 9D 20L in their last 37 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.89 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when VfL Wolfsburg 3-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 47%, VfL Wolfsburg 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 63% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 74% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.