🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of VfL Bochum.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat VfL Bochum 4-1 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.97 xG and VfL Bochum 1.11 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against VfL Bochum attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 56% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 20%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 65%, VfL Bochum 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights