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Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 xG and SV Elversberg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against SV Elversberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 35% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 36%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 63%, SV Elversberg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights