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Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 65%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights