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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Karlsruher SC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Karlsruher SC 3-2 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.24 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.02 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Karlsruher SC outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Draw 19% | Karlsruher SC 16%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 60%, Karlsruher SC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.42 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights