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Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Karlsruher SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Karlsruher SC 3-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.44 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karlsruher SC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 33%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Karlsruher SC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights