🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.37 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.53 / defence 1.62, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 66%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.11 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights