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SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hannover 96.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hannover 96 3-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 xG and Hannover 96 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Hannover 96 attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 38% | Draw 33% | Hannover 96 29%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Hannover 96 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights