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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 27, as SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.18 / defence 0.74 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.85 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 51% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 20%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, FC Schalke 04 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights