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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Darmstadt 98 and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 11, as SV Darmstadt 98 and Arminia Bielefeld drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.94 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.99 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.96 / defence 0.70 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.01 / defence 1.37, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Draw 22% | Arminia Bielefeld 19%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 40%, Arminia Bielefeld 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights