SSV Ulm 1846 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Donaustadion to face SSV Ulm 1846 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SSV Ulm 1846 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 1W 1D 4L at Donaustadion — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SSV Ulm 1846 against 0.80 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Trading & In-Play

SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 54% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 46% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.725 / defence 0.970 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.040 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.515. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 47 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 27% | Draw 29% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%.

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