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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SSV Ulm 1846 and Preußen Münster share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Ulm 1846 and Preußen Münster finished level at 2-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.18 xG and Preußen Münster 1.39 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Preußen Münster attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 30% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 40%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 46%, Preußen Münster 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SSV Ulm 1846 0.88 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights