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Dominant SSV Ulm 1846 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Ulm 1846 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.67 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.58, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 52% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 44%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SSV Ulm 1846 0.78 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SSV Ulm 1846 win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 3.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights