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Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SSV Ulm 1846 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 xG and Hannover 96 1.17 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Hannover 96 attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 35%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 42%, Hannover 96 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights