SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Full Analysis

Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Current Form

SSV Jahn Regensburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Paderborn 07's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–3 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% versus SC Paderborn 07 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.76 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.653 / defence 0.959 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.085 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.273. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. SC Paderborn 07 bring a tight defence (rating 0.773, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output down. Data: built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 24 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 58.

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.10 | Draw 3.12 | SC Paderborn 07 2.07. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 away games).

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