SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SSV Jahn Regensburg face Hamburger SV.

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Analysis

Hamburger SV make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Current Form

SSV Jahn Regensburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Hamburger SV have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Hamburger SV's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hamburger SV are 1.20 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Hamburger SV, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–5 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Hamburger SV have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 5.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% versus Hamburger SV 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | Hamburger SV 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG and Hamburger SV 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.658 / defence 0.896 | Hamburger SV attack 1.179 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.489. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 21 games and Hamburger SV's last 55.

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 49%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.03 | Draw 3.82 | Hamburger SV 2.04. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SSV Jahn Regensburg 10% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 80% (last 10 away games).

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