SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 42%, yet in-form Eintracht Braunschweig provide a compelling counter-argument — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Eintracht Braunschweig have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Braunschweig are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–0 Eintracht Braunschweig — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 28% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.30 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.778 / defence 0.796 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.030 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.252. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. SSV Jahn Regensburg have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Eintracht Braunschweig's projected output down. Data: built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 30 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 64.
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.40 | Draw 3.34 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Braunschweig (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.30 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.778 / def 0.796 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.030 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 42% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.78x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 30 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.34
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.33
1.03
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.03 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 5D 20L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 0.81 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across their last 16 home games, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — SSV Jahn Regensburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 16 away games (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.09 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 5D 20L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.38 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 25%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 56% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 50% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 56% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 56% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 81% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 31, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.30 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.81 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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