SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln encounter.

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Match Analysis

SSV Jahn Regensburg host 1. FC Köln at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 4L this season (8 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.

1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. 1. FC Köln's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of SSV Jahn Regensburg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Trading Patterns

SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.

1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 19% versus 1. FC Köln 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | 1. FC Köln 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.86 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.518 / defence 1.061 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.871 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.544. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.518 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 14 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 48%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Köln 2.08. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | 1. FC Köln 70% BTTS from recent games.

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