🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome SSV Jahn Regensburg to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 1.00 (SSV Jahn Regensburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 4–0 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.956 / defence 1.298 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.680 / defence 1.791. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.540. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.791 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 20 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 18%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights