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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth host SC Paderborn 07 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.022 / defence 1.157 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.984 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.326. Data: 61 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 61 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

SpVgg Greuther Fürth dominate the H2H record, yet SC Paderborn 07 are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | SC Paderborn 07 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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