SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hertha BSC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Hertha BSC travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Hertha BSC's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for Hertha BSC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% and Hertha BSC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | Hertha BSC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG and Hertha BSC 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.879 / defence 1.328 | Hertha BSC attack 1.199 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.549. Data: 48 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 48 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 61%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Hertha BSC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 2.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | Hertha BSC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 / Hertha BSC 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.879 / def 1.328 | Hertha BSC attack 1.199 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Hertha BSC xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 18% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.88) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 1-3 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
18%
5.60
21%
4.73
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.79
2.47
Hertha BSC xG
5.60
18%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
8%
11.79
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
2%
66.03
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.47 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 17W 13D 18L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 17L across 48 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.33 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.96 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 73%.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hertha BSC away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.62 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 62%, Hertha BSC at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 75% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 79% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 75% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG and Hertha BSC 2.47 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against Hertha BSC attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 61%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, Hertha BSC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.