🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Hamburger SV.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hamburger SV to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.

Hamburger SV — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Hamburger SV 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–5 with Hamburger SV winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% versus Hamburger SV 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | Hamburger SV 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG and Hamburger SV 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.937 / defence 1.197 | Hamburger SV attack 1.375 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 67 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 60%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Hamburger SV 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights