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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.946 / defence 1.180 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.632 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.258. Data: 67 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 67 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.35. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%.

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