🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Nürnberg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. 1. FC Nürnberg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1. FC Nürnberg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | 1. FC Nürnberg 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.73 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.007 / defence 1.041 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.037 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.253. Data: 34 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 34 1. FC Nürnberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 29%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.45. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Nürnberg (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights