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Dominant VfL Bochum run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-3 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 xG and VfL Bochum 1.54 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against VfL Bochum attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 40%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, VfL Bochum 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.11 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights