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SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rot-Weiß Essen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Final, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.94 xG and Rot-Weiß Essen 1.17 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rot-Weiß Essen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 24% | Rot-Weiß Essen 22%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0%, Rot-Weiß Essen 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rot-Weiß Essen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rot-Weiß Essen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.