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Dominant Karlsruher SC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-4 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.65 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.49 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Karlsruher SC outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 42% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 35%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Karlsruher SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, Karlsruher SC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights