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Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.36 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.79, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 18%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights