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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC finished level at 3-3 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.80 xG and Hertha BSC 2.04 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC outscored their 2.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.77 / defence 1.39 against Hertha BSC attack 1.12 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 66%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, Hertha BSC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.08 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights