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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 8, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 xG and Hannover 96 1.91 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.89 / defence 1.33 against Hannover 96 attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 22% | Hannover 96 54%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61%, Hannover 96 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights