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Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hannover 96 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG and Hannover 96 1.71 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hannover 96 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against Hannover 96 attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 42%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%, Hannover 96 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Hannover 96's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.37 PPG, Hannover 96 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights