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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 27, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 drew 3-3 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.34 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.39 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 37%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights