SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Energie Cottbus at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Energie Cottbus (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for Energie Cottbus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 4–3 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Energie Cottbus half-time and goal-timing data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% and Energie Cottbus 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Energie Cottbus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.64 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.817 / defence 1.071 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.101 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.497. Data: 40 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 5 Energie Cottbus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 36% | Draw 23% | Energie Cottbus 41%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Energie Cottbus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Energie Cottbus at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Energie Cottbus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Energie Cottbus 33%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 36% | Draw 23% | Energie Cottbus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.64 / Energie Cottbus 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.817 / def 1.071 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.101 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Energie Cottbus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Energie Cottbus xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 36% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Energie Cottbus the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | Energie Cottbus 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.82) and Energie Cottbus's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Energie Cottbus's attack (1.10x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 40/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Energie Cottbus Win
36%
2.77
23%
4.43
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.41
1.77
Energie Cottbus xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.77 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Energie Cottbus's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.40 for Energie Cottbus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Energie Cottbus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 2.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Energie Cottbus in 60%.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Energie Cottbus away?
Energie Cottbus's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.33 PPG; Energie Cottbus away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
0
Energie Cottbus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus?
From 1 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Energie Cottbus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Energie Cottbus 3-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, Energie Cottbus 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 100% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Energie Cottbus in 33%; SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 33% of games; Energie Cottbus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Energie Cottbus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 33% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 100% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.