SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Energie Cottbus (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Energie Cottbus in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for Energie Cottbus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 4–3 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Energie Cottbus half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% and Energie Cottbus 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Energie Cottbus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.66 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.031 / defence 1.172 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.000 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.645. Energie Cottbus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 4 Energie Cottbus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | Draw 18% | Energie Cottbus 28%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 | Draw 5.56 | Energie Cottbus 3.57. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.66 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 54% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | Energie Cottbus 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | Draw 18% | Energie Cottbus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 79% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.66 / Energie Cottbus 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.031 / def 1.172 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.000 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Energie Cottbus xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 54% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 28% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | Energie Cottbus 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (1.03) and Energie Cottbus's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Energie Cottbus's attack (1.00x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.9%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.7%), 3-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
54%
1.86
18%
5.48
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
4.58
1.93
Energie Cottbus xG
1.86
54%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.87
Clean Sheet
15%
6.87
7%
14.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
2%
51.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.93 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 4.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Energie Cottbus's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Energie Cottbus.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 2.50 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Energie Cottbus in 75%.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
0
Energie Cottbus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus?
From 1 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Energie Cottbus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Energie Cottbus 3-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 75% for Energie Cottbus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 100% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Energie Cottbus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 75% of Energie Cottbus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 100% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.