SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.20 for Arminia Bielefeld. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Historically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 6 meetings, with Arminia Bielefeld managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The historical record gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and Arminia Bielefeld 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% | Arminia Bielefeld 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.913 / defence 0.980 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.879 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.295. Data: 42 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 41 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 49% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 26%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.85. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Arminia Bielefeld 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 49% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.913 / def 0.980 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.879 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 49% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (6 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3W | Draws 3 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.88x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.03
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.74
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.12 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 10D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 1.15 PPG from 41 outings (12W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.15 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 7W 6D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arminia Bielefeld's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 1.56 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Arminia Bielefeld in 66%.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.35 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 50% (Arminia Bielefeld).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 65% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.