SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 46%, yet in-form 1. FC Nürnberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Nürnberg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1. FC Nürnberg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.72 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.040 / defence 1.014 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.010 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.345. Data: 35 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 35 1. FC Nürnberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 31%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.23. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Nürnberg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.72 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.040 / def 1.014 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.010 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 46% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (8 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 3 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.04x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.24
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.10
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.38 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 10W 8D 17L from 35 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 12L across 35 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Nürnberg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 10D 12L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.35 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
4
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 9 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47%, 1. FC Nürnberg 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 53% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 76% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 53% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.72 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 31%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, 1. FC Nürnberg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.